West Virginia playing it safe

Conference expansion comes in waves, and things have been fairly quiet since A&M made their move to the SEC at the end of September. We've all heard West Virginia to the ACC, then the SEC, then the Big XII. There has been a lot of talk, rumors, and wishful thinking, but not much has actually happened.

That's all about to change. 

Conference USA and the Mountain West recently announced plans to marry. If the ceremony took place tomorrow, it would result in a family of 22 football schools. Talk about a lot of mouths to feed. That won't happen though, as reports broke Tuesday night that the Big East has voted unanimously to double the exit fee to $10 million in hopes of luring additional schools on board. Houston, UCF, and SMU are some of the schools under consideration who are currently members of either Conference USA or the Mountain West. So the alliance may be just a way to batten down for the upcoming onslaught. 

But wait, it gets better. 

Right before the reports surfaced regarding the Big East's exit fee increase, the story broke that Mizzou will submit an application to the SEC. Of course, this news has huge implications for the Big East, because Louisville and WVU are near the top of the Big XII's list of schools to grab should Missouri bolt. 

But the Big East unanimously voted to increase the exit fee, meaning the league's top two candidates to jump ship both checked off on the decision. Did WVU and UL have knowledge of the Mizzou news before voting? If so, why would they agree?

The most likely answer is that, yes, the two schools had insight into the Missouri situation. The entire football expansion landscape has hinged on the "Show-Me" State, well...showing us. There had been signs that Missouri was going to wait out their decision, possibly making their mind up after the season. But the latest is that an application could go out within a week. So, if Louisville and West Virginia knew this, why vote to increase the fee? 

It's simple. They bought into an insurance plan. While both are candidates for Big XII expansion, who knows if the conference will go to twelve or stay at ten? Maybe it's BYU that gets the ten-pin and that's it. Game over.

Consider the case where Missouri changes it's mind or isn't able to secure the necessary SEC votes for membership. All cases where West Virginia is still standing in the Big East. 

The point is, this whole situation is extremely fluid. Putting all of your eggs in one basket is a very unwise decision, and if UL and WVU are forced to stay in the Big East, it's in their best interest that the conference picks up enough talent to retain its AQ status. 

Grab your boogie boards. The next wave is rolling in, and it'll be interesting to see where it takes us.