West Virginia playing it safe

Conference expansion comes in waves, and things have been fairly quiet since A&M made their move to the SEC at the end of September. We've all heard West Virginia to the ACC, then the SEC, then the Big XII. There has been a lot of talk, rumors, and wishful thinking, but not much has actually happened.

That's all about to change. 

Conference USA and the Mountain West recently announced plans to marry. If the ceremony took place tomorrow, it would result in a family of 22 football schools. Talk about a lot of mouths to feed. That won't happen though, as reports broke Tuesday night that the Big East has voted unanimously to double the exit fee to $10 million in hopes of luring additional schools on board. Houston, UCF, and SMU are some of the schools under consideration who are currently members of either Conference USA or the Mountain West. So the alliance may be just a way to batten down for the upcoming onslaught. 

But wait, it gets better. 

Right before the reports surfaced regarding the Big East's exit fee increase, the story broke that Mizzou will submit an application to the SEC. Of course, this news has huge implications for the Big East, because Louisville and WVU are near the top of the Big XII's list of schools to grab should Missouri bolt. 

But the Big East unanimously voted to increase the exit fee, meaning the league's top two candidates to jump ship both checked off on the decision. Did WVU and UL have knowledge of the Mizzou news before voting? If so, why would they agree?

The most likely answer is that, yes, the two schools had insight into the Missouri situation. The entire football expansion landscape has hinged on the "Show-Me" State, well...showing us. There had been signs that Missouri was going to wait out their decision, possibly making their mind up after the season. But the latest is that an application could go out within a week. So, if Louisville and West Virginia knew this, why vote to increase the fee? 

It's simple. They bought into an insurance plan. While both are candidates for Big XII expansion, who knows if the conference will go to twelve or stay at ten? Maybe it's BYU that gets the ten-pin and that's it. Game over.

Consider the case where Missouri changes it's mind or isn't able to secure the necessary SEC votes for membership. All cases where West Virginia is still standing in the Big East. 

The point is, this whole situation is extremely fluid. Putting all of your eggs in one basket is a very unwise decision, and if UL and WVU are forced to stay in the Big East, it's in their best interest that the conference picks up enough talent to retain its AQ status. 

Grab your boogie boards. The next wave is rolling in, and it'll be interesting to see where it takes us.  

Reports: TCU to Big 12, Air Force thinking Big East

TCU officials are scheduled to meet later today and make an announcement this evening on whether or not to accept an invitation to become a member of the Big 12 conference. TCU was scheduled to join the Big East in 2012, but with recent defections to the ACC by members Syracuse and Pittsburgh, the conference is quickly losing stability as a football conference. Many believe that the TCU meeting is no more than a formality, and that the move to the Big 12 is a foregone conclusion.

If the TCU move becomes official later today, it could set off another round of expansion chaos as the Big East struggles to survive. Although the Big East commissioner has been granted permission to "aggressively pursue discussions" with other schools, no invitations have been extended. East Carolina publicly submitted an application to join the Big East, but the school is not believed to be high on the conference's list of choices. Several schools including Navy, Air Force, Central Florida, Temple, Houston, and Southern Methodist have been listed as possible targets by the Big East. It's likely that the TCU departure would force the Big East to push the panic button and start handing out invitations.

Hans Mueh, the athletic director at Air Force, recently told the Denver Post that his school is very interested in the Big East with hopes that the other service academies, Army and Navy, will also join. Several sources including NBC Sports and Boston Globe reported that the Big East is also considering the addition of Boise State for football only. Both schools are an odd fit geographically, with Air Force located in Colorado Springs and Boise State in Idaho. More than 2,000 miles separate Boise State from Big East schools Rutgers, Connecticut, and South Florida.

Regardless of the TCU decision, the Big 12 conference may be looking to add even more members. No one is certain if the Big 12, currently at nine members, is aiming for ten or twelve schools. Add in the fact that Big 12 member Missouri is currently discussing their conference alignment options, and heads begin to swirl at the interconnected nature of this realignment business. Missouri has publicly stated in the past that they prefer the Big Ten conference, but the school was spurned last year when the Big Ten added Nebraska and Colorado. If they wish to leave the Big 12, it appears Mizzou will need to pursue the 14th spot in the SEC that opened up when the conference added Texas A&M in late September. Big East schools Louisville and West Virginia were also reportedly hoping for that opening, but many speculate that Missouri is higher on the list. Regardless, SEC commissioner Mike Slive has stated that he sees no problem remaining at thirteen members for the 2012 season.

What does all of this mean for West Virginia? It means that WVU could end up in any number of conferences by the time the dust settles, and guessing where they land is like playing roulette. The most likely destinations appear to be the Big 12 or a reconfigured Big East, with glimmers of hope for a spot in the SEC. It all depends on timing and how many teams the power conferences decide to add. It's a waiting game of sorts, and right now all eyes are on TCU and Missouri.