128 Big East Outcomes

With only two weekends and seven games remaining in Big East play, five teams still remain in the hunt for a BCS bowl birth: Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and oh yeah...Pitt. Just to illustrate how wide open this race is, consider that West Virginia could win the conference outright, or finish in last place. In two weekends. Two!

No team controls its destiny. All fates are intertwined. Even Syracuse, South Florida, and Connecticut, while out of the race, will have a huge impact on the league. For West Virginia fans, South Florida defeating Louisville is monumental. Without going into too much detail, here's a quick breakdown of what WVU needs:

Of 128 total outcomes remaining, only 27 (21%) give WVU the BCS bid.  Of those 27, only 4 outcomes exist where Louisville wins against South Florida, and each of those 4 scenarios require Cincinnati to win out. So, it's nearly critical for WVU fans that the Cards lose to USF on Friday morning preceding the Backyard Brawl. Otherwise, the Mountaineers' BCS chances depend on Cincinnati winning their final two, and that's not a very promising prospect with Collaros out.

For your viewing pleasure, and to satisfy your curiosity, we will post the output of a Big East Season simulator created by WV Sports Nation to determine all possible outcomes for the remaining games. We adhered to the Big East rules on tie-breakers to the extent possible. But keep in mind, the rules do not mention anything larger than a 4-way tie, although they are possible (up to a six-way tie is possible). In those cases, we applied the same ruling as a 4-way tie.

We will post all of the results that favor each team in individually, but for now, here are the overall results:

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2011 Big East Championship and BCS Scenarios
There are 7 games and 128 possible outcomes remaining in the Big East. Below is a listing of the teams by the number of outcomes that would provide that team with a BCS bid:
Louisville: 37 (28.90625%)
Rutgers: 37 (28.90625%)
West Virginia: 27 (21.09375%)
Cincinnati: 13 (10.15625%)
Pittsburgh: 14 (10.9375%)
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The comprehensive individual results for each team are now available. Follow the links below to see a breakdown of which 128 scenarios favor each team:

Louisville
Rutgers
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

Enjoy the list, the turkey, and the football this week. Oh, and...Beat Pitt!