Tuesday, November 22, 2011

BCS Chances: Cincinnati

This post is a continuation of 128 Big East Outcomes and explores the 13 scenarios (of 128) where Cincinnati would obtain the Big East's BCS bid. As a reminder, the following is a breakdown of the remaining scenarios by the team that obtains the BCS bid:

Louisville: 37 (28.90625%)
Rutgers: 37 (28.90625%)
West Virginia: 27 (21.09375%)
Cincinnati: 13 (10.15625%)
Pittsburgh: 14 (10.9375%)

Without further ado, Cincinnati's chances...
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CINCINNATI (13 of 128):
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SCENARIO 1:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 Cincinnati and Louisville are tied in the Big East conference standings (5-2). However, Cincinnati won the head-to-head matchup during the regular season and receives the BCS bid.
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Louisville (7-5, 5-2)           W at South Florida (7-5, 5-2)   --Bye Week--                    
Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-3)           W at West Virginia (6-5, 4-2)   L vs Syracuse (6-6, 4-3)        
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
West Virginia (7-5, 3-4)        L vs Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-3)      L at South Florida (7-5, 3-4)   
South Florida (6-6, 2-6)        L vs Louisville (5-6, 1-6)      W vs West Virginia (6-6, 2-6)   
Syracuse (6-6, 2-5)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      W at Pittsburgh (6-6, 2-5)      


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SCENARIO 2:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 The following teams are tied for the best conference record in the Big East:
Cincinnati (4-3)
Rutgers (4-3)
Louisville (4-3)
Pittsburgh (4-3)

Within the group, the following teams have identical head-to-head records:
Cincinnati (2-1)
Rutgers (2-1)

In this case, the BCS ranking determines the BCS bowl representative. Several factors including overall record, longest active win streak, and current rankings are used to predict the final BCS poll.

Of those with identical head-to-head records, the following teams are also tied for best overall season records:
Cincinnati (8-4)
Rutgers (8-4)

However, Cincinnati has the longest winning streak (1 wins) among those teams, and is therefore is most likely to have the highest BCS rating and receive the BCS bid.
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (8-4, 4-3)           L at Syracuse (7-4, 3-3)        W vs Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     
Louisville (6-6, 4-3)           L at South Florida (6-6, 4-3)   --Bye Week--                    
Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-3)           W at West Virginia (6-5, 4-2)   L vs Syracuse (6-6, 4-3)        
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
South Florida (7-5, 3-5)        W vs Louisville (6-5, 2-5)      W vs West Virginia (7-5, 3-5)   
Syracuse (7-5, 3-4)             W vs Cincinnati (6-5, 2-4)      W at Pittsburgh (7-5, 3-4)      
West Virginia (7-5, 3-4)        L vs Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-3)      L at South Florida (7-5, 3-4)   


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SCENARIO 3:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 Cincinnati and Louisville are tied in the Big East conference standings (5-2). However, Cincinnati won the head-to-head matchup during the regular season and receives the BCS bid.
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Louisville (7-5, 5-2)           W at South Florida (7-5, 5-2)   --Bye Week--                    
Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-3)           L at West Virginia (5-6, 3-3)   W vs Syracuse (6-6, 4-3)        
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
West Virginia (8-4, 4-3)        W vs Pittsburgh (8-3, 4-2)      L at South Florida (8-4, 4-3)   
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
South Florida (6-6, 2-6)        L vs Louisville (5-6, 1-6)      W vs West Virginia (6-6, 2-6)   
Syracuse (5-7, 1-6)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      L at Pittsburgh (5-7, 1-6)      


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SCENARIO 4:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 Cincinnati has the best Big East conference record (5-2)
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Louisville (6-6, 4-3)           L at South Florida (6-6, 4-3)   --Bye Week--                    
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
West Virginia (8-4, 4-3)        W vs Pittsburgh (8-3, 4-2)      L at South Florida (8-4, 4-3)   
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
Pittsburgh (5-7, 3-4)           L at West Virginia (5-6, 3-3)   L vs Syracuse (5-7, 3-4)        
South Florida (7-5, 3-5)        W vs Louisville (6-5, 2-5)      W vs West Virginia (7-5, 3-5)   
Syracuse (6-6, 2-5)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      W at Pittsburgh (6-6, 2-5)      


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SCENARIO 5:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 Cincinnati has the best Big East conference record (5-2)
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Louisville (6-6, 4-3)           L at South Florida (6-6, 4-3)   --Bye Week--                    
Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-3)           W at West Virginia (6-5, 4-2)   L vs Syracuse (6-6, 4-3)        
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
South Florida (7-5, 3-5)        W vs Louisville (6-5, 2-5)      W vs West Virginia (7-5, 3-5)   
West Virginia (7-5, 3-4)        L vs Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-3)      L at South Florida (7-5, 3-4)   
Syracuse (6-6, 2-5)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      W at Pittsburgh (6-6, 2-5)      


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SCENARIO 6:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are tied in the Big East conference standings (5-2). However, Cincinnati won the head-to-head matchup during the regular season and receives the BCS bid.
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Pittsburgh (7-5, 5-2)           W at West Virginia (6-5, 4-2)   W vs Syracuse (7-5, 5-2)        
Louisville (6-6, 4-3)           L at South Florida (6-6, 4-3)   --Bye Week--                    
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
South Florida (7-5, 3-5)        W vs Louisville (6-5, 2-5)      W vs West Virginia (7-5, 3-5)   
West Virginia (7-5, 3-4)        L vs Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-3)      L at South Florida (7-5, 3-4)   
Syracuse (5-7, 1-6)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      L at Pittsburgh (5-7, 1-6)      


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SCENARIO 7:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 The following teams are tied for the best conference record in the Big East:
Cincinnati (5-2)
Louisville (5-2)
Pittsburgh (5-2)

Cincinnati has the best head-to-head record (2-0) among the group and therefore receives the BCS bid:
Cincinnati (2-0)
Pittsburgh (1-1)
Louisville (0-2)
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Louisville (7-5, 5-2)           W at South Florida (7-5, 5-2)   --Bye Week--                    
Pittsburgh (7-5, 5-2)           W at West Virginia (6-5, 4-2)   W vs Syracuse (7-5, 5-2)        
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
West Virginia (8-4, 4-3)        L vs Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-3)      W at South Florida (8-4, 4-3)   
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
South Florida (5-7, 1-7)        L vs Louisville (5-6, 1-6)      L vs West Virginia (5-7, 1-7)   
Syracuse (5-7, 1-6)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      L at Pittsburgh (5-7, 1-6)      


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SCENARIO 8:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 The following teams are tied for the best conference record in the Big East:
Cincinnati (5-2)
Louisville (5-2)
Pittsburgh (5-2)

Cincinnati has the best head-to-head record (2-0) among the group and therefore receives the BCS bid:
Cincinnati (2-0)
Pittsburgh (1-1)
Louisville (0-2)
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Louisville (7-5, 5-2)           W at South Florida (7-5, 5-2)   --Bye Week--                    
Pittsburgh (7-5, 5-2)           W at West Virginia (6-5, 4-2)   W vs Syracuse (7-5, 5-2)        
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
West Virginia (7-5, 3-4)        L vs Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-3)      L at South Florida (7-5, 3-4)   
South Florida (6-6, 2-6)        L vs Louisville (5-6, 1-6)      W vs West Virginia (6-6, 2-6)   
Syracuse (5-7, 1-6)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      L at Pittsburgh (5-7, 1-6)      


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SCENARIO 9:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are tied in the Big East conference standings (5-2). However, Cincinnati won the head-to-head matchup during the regular season and receives the BCS bid.
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Pittsburgh (7-5, 5-2)           W at West Virginia (6-5, 4-2)   W vs Syracuse (7-5, 5-2)        
Louisville (6-6, 4-3)           L at South Florida (6-6, 4-3)   --Bye Week--                    
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
West Virginia (8-4, 4-3)        L vs Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-3)      W at South Florida (8-4, 4-3)   
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
South Florida (6-6, 2-6)        W vs Louisville (6-5, 2-5)      L vs West Virginia (6-6, 2-6)   
Syracuse (5-7, 1-6)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      L at Pittsburgh (5-7, 1-6)      


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SCENARIO 10:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 Cincinnati has the best Big East conference record (5-2)
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Louisville (6-6, 4-3)           L at South Florida (6-6, 4-3)   --Bye Week--                    
Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-3)           W at West Virginia (6-5, 4-2)   L vs Syracuse (6-6, 4-3)        
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
West Virginia (8-4, 4-3)        L vs Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-3)      W at South Florida (8-4, 4-3)   
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
South Florida (6-6, 2-6)        W vs Louisville (6-5, 2-5)      L vs West Virginia (6-6, 2-6)   
Syracuse (6-6, 2-5)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      W at Pittsburgh (6-6, 2-5)      


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SCENARIO 11:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 Cincinnati has the best Big East conference record (5-2)
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Louisville (6-6, 4-3)           L at South Florida (6-6, 4-3)   --Bye Week--                    
Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-3)           L at West Virginia (5-6, 3-3)   W vs Syracuse (6-6, 4-3)        
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
West Virginia (8-4, 4-3)        W vs Pittsburgh (8-3, 4-2)      L at South Florida (8-4, 4-3)   
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
South Florida (7-5, 3-5)        W vs Louisville (6-5, 2-5)      W vs West Virginia (7-5, 3-5)   
Syracuse (5-7, 1-6)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      L at Pittsburgh (5-7, 1-6)      


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SCENARIO 12:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 Cincinnati and Louisville are tied in the Big East conference standings (5-2). However, Cincinnati won the head-to-head matchup during the regular season and receives the BCS bid.
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Louisville (7-5, 5-2)           W at South Florida (7-5, 5-2)   --Bye Week--                    
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
West Virginia (8-4, 4-3)        W vs Pittsburgh (8-3, 4-2)      L at South Florida (8-4, 4-3)   
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
Pittsburgh (5-7, 3-4)           L at West Virginia (5-6, 3-3)   L vs Syracuse (5-7, 3-4)        
South Florida (6-6, 2-6)        L vs Louisville (5-6, 1-6)      W vs West Virginia (6-6, 2-6)   
Syracuse (6-6, 2-5)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      W at Pittsburgh (6-6, 2-5)      


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SCENARIO 13:
BCS Bid: 
 Cincinnati
EXPLANATION: 
 Cincinnati and Louisville are tied in the Big East conference standings (5-2). However, Cincinnati won the head-to-head matchup during the regular season and receives the BCS bid.
FULL RESULT: 
 Team                            Week 12                         Week 13                         

Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2)           W at Syracuse (8-3, 4-2)        W vs Connecticut (9-3, 5-2)     
Louisville (7-5, 5-2)           W at South Florida (7-5, 5-2)   --Bye Week--                    
Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-3)           W at West Virginia (6-5, 4-2)   L vs Syracuse (6-6, 4-3)        
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3)              L at Connecticut (8-4, 4-3)     --Bye Week--                    
West Virginia (8-4, 4-3)        L vs Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-3)      W at South Florida (8-4, 4-3)   
Connecticut (5-7, 3-4)          W vs Rutgers (5-6, 3-3)         L at Cincinnati (5-7, 3-4)      
Syracuse (6-6, 2-5)             L vs Cincinnati (5-6, 1-5)      W at Pittsburgh (6-6, 2-5)      
South Florida (5-7, 1-7)        L vs Louisville (5-6, 1-6)      L vs West Virginia (5-7, 1-7)   

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